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Spring 2022 Lecture Series presents Prof. Malte Willer (University of Chicago)
Thursday, March 31, 2022, 03:00pm - 05:00pm
Title: "CREDENCES FOR IFFY UPDATES"
There is an interesting argument in favor of the principle of Conditional Excluded Middle, based on Stalnaker’s thesis about how to assign probabilities to conditionals. The argument is not irresistible but points to an important tension in our thinking about conditionals, between the standard analysis of conditionals as universal quantifiers over possible worlds (inspired by the Ramsey test) and the intuition that there must be some (triviality-proof) connection between the credence in a conditional and the conditional probability of its consequent given its antecedent. I show how the tension receives an elegant and empirically adequate resolution in a dynamic semantic analysis of conditionals as iffy updates.